On November 30, 2015, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted a scientific conference "The impact of the aggravation of contradictions between the West and Russia on the situation and the balance of power in Asia and Africa", which was attended by researchers, experts, and university teachers from a number of cities of the Russian Federation.

Opening the conference, A. M. Khazanov noted that its goal is to formulate a vision of the current situation by the scientific community of Orientalists, Africanists and other experts, to identify the main factors that led to the redistribution of roles and regrouping of key players that created an extremely dangerous situation on the chessboard of world politics.

L. I. Medvedko (IB RAS) in his report "Retribution after the test" expressed the opinion that the position on the chessboard of geopolitics is now determined not only in the system of geopolitics and geoeconomics, but also in the system of civilizational relations between the countries of the East and West. After the crash of a Russian airbus over Sinai, Russia announced an anti-terrorist operation "Retribution". After the downing of the Su-24 bomber by a Turkish fighter jet, the NATO bloc was de facto involved in this quasi-world war.

Anatoly KHAZANOV-Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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According to the speaker, the peculiarity of the situation is that Russia is now at a dangerous fork in the "hybrid" war not only in Ukraine, but also with several NATO states.

T. L. Deitch (IAfr. RAS) in her report "Aggravation of relations between the West and Russia: positions of the BRICS countries" noted that in the difficult situation that has developed in the international arena, the BRICS countries have supported Russia. None of them approved the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions by Western countries. In response to calls to exclude the Russian Federation from the G20, BRICS foreign ministers issued a joint statement condemning these calls. As for the Syrian conflict, at the BRICS and SCO summits in Ufa in July 2015, a consensus was reached on the views of the Islamic State (IS) and other terrorist groups as an evil that must be resolutely combated.

Chinese leaders have dismissed Western sanctions on Russia as a mistake. But, according to the speaker, Beijing's support for Russia should not be considered unconditional. China has not criticized Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, but it has not yet recognized Crimea as part of Russia and does not accept official delegations with the participation of Crimean officials. China carefully adjusts its policy line, fearing to spoil relations with the West. In its assessment of the Syrian conflict, China has aligned itself with Russia. Russia and China vetoed the UN resolution on sanctions in Syria in 2011, 2012 and 2014.

India's position on the issue of Western sanctions against Russia, according to the speaker, does not differ from that of China. This is due to both friendly ties between India and the Russian Federation, and the negative attitude of the Indian leadership to sanctions as a political tool. India's assessment of the Syrian conflict is determined by its traditional warm relations with Syria. India condemns terrorism and the terrorist threat posed by IS. According to Indian Deputy Foreign Minister A. Wadhwa, the Russian military intervention in Syria is designed to prevent the successful advance of the Islamic State.

Brazil stands in solidarity with Russia on the problems of Crimea and Ukraine, and, like other BRICS members, supports a political solution to the Syrian crisis. At the same time, Brazil - the only BRICS country - has criticized Russia's military intervention in the Syrian conflict. Speaking in Sweden on October 19, 2015, President Rousseff of Brazil stated:: "I don't think bombing will solve the situation. This is a problem that also applies to Russian interference." According to Rousseff, the world powers should come to an agreement that will result in joint actions. You don't have to talk to the Islamic State. We must try to find a solution through the efforts of major Powers. South Africa did not support the anti-Russian sanctions. This was stated at the summit in Ufa by the Minister of Trade and Industry of South Africa R. Davis.

The speaker concluded that the BRICS countries are generally united in their desire to support Russia. At the same time, according to T. L. Deitch, the BRICS countries support Russia, since this does not affect their relations with the West. They are unlikely to take the side of the Russian Federation if the result is serious damage to these relations or the threat of Western economic sanctions against them. According to the speaker, the BRICS countries show restraint in assessing the military solution to the Syrian problem, which is due to their policy of non-intervention and unwillingness to enter into conflict with the West. But they are ready to present a united front in negotiations on a peaceful solution to the Syrian conflict.

B. V. Dolgov (IB RAS) in his report "The Syrian crisis in the global politics of the West and Russia" identified two blocks of states whose interests in the Middle East contradict each other. The first group includes Russia, Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Hezbollah, while the second group includes the United States and its NATO allies, including Turkey, as well as Israel and the Persian Gulf monarchies.

Turkey, as a member of NATO, follows in line with its global policy in the Syrian crisis. At the same time, Turkey has its own strategic interests in Syria. The support of the Turkish leadership for Syrian Sunni Islamist groups, some of which are fighters of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, is due to the fact that the current Turkish leadership, represented by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), is made up of moderate Islamists ideologically close to the Muslim Brotherhood. In this regard, the overthrow of the secular Baathist regime in Syria and the likely coming to power of Sunni Islamic forces are in the interests of the Turkish leadership. In addition, the current Syrian regime is an ally of Tehran, and Turkey, which competes with Iran for leadership in the region, is interested in weakening it.

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According to the speaker, Turkey supplies weapons for Syrian anti-government armed groups, which are purchased with money from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Currently, according to the Syrian authorities, there are more than a thousand armed anti-government groups operating in Syria, each of which has a number of fighters ranging from a few to several thousand. The total number of militants is approximately 70-80 thousand B. V. Dolgov, who repeatedly visited Syria in the period from 2011 to 2015, noted that many Syrians consider Assad a national leader and that only the current regime can ensure a safe and peaceful life for ordinary citizens by suppressing extremist Islamist groups.

According to the speaker, in Syria, despite the destruction of part of the industrial infrastructure, thanks primarily to the help of Russia and Iran, hundreds of enterprises and agricultural structures continue to work, as confirmed by Syrian Prime Minister Wa'il Nadir al-Khalqi. The Syrian higher education system is also functioning. According to a representative of the leadership of the University of Damascus, in 2015, 130 thousand students studied there, and in all of Syria, although with interruptions, 24 of the 27 existing universities in the country are functioning.

A significant part of Dolgov's report was devoted to the analysis of the nature and activities of ISIS. Speaking about the prospects for resolving the Syrian crisis, the speaker noted that it is impossible without suppressing radical Islamist groups. Only the firm support of Russia and other countries for the legitimately elected Syrian leadership is a guarantee of stability in the region and, in many respects, Russia's national security.

A. M. Khazanov (IB RAS) in the report " The Syrian Tragedy: what games do tigers play?" I tried to identify the factors that led to the emergence and escalation of the Syrian crisis. Among the internal factors, he attributed the fact that the power in Syria belongs to representatives of the religious minority - Alawites, while the majority of the population is Sunni. Another factor was the country's difficult economic situation. The economy was based on an inefficient public sector, and oil reserves were rapidly drying up. As a result, by the end of 2014, various armed groups opposed the Assad regime in Syria. The speaker analyzed in detail the goals, programs and activities of these organizations. According to Khazanov, regional and extra-regional forces are involved in the Syrian conflict. On the side of Assad are Shiite countries (or countries where Shiites are in power), against him are Sunni countries. Thus, this conflict took the form of a Sunni-Shiite confrontation.

M. M. Slinkin (Research Institute of Military History) in his report "Peculiarities of conducting military operations by the Syrian armed opposition" noted that initially the armed wing of the Syrian opposition used the principles of conducting urban guerrilla warfare (liquidation of the leaders of the armed forces and police, expropriation of resources belonging to the government and private individuals). Gradually, this tactic was transformed into a desire to cause as much damage as possible to industrial facilities, economic and social infrastructure of the country. Over time, the opposition's activities focused on capturing one of the major centers of the country, where its leadership could establish itself. The efforts of the Syrian People's Army (CCA) and radical Islamist groups were aimed at creating such a strong area. Their attempts to gain a foothold in Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Al-Qusayr and other cities have largely determined the nature of the fighting, which in Syria is conducted, as a rule, in an urban environment.

According to the speaker, the "underground war" is a characteristic feature of the fighting in Syria. In Aleppo, militants blew up the complex of buildings of the Carlton Hotel, breaking through a 107-meter-long tunnel in 33 days and laying 25 tons of explosives. The opposition's shift of the main struggle to cities and localities is aimed at disrupting the normal life of citizens, arousing their discontent and directing them against the State that is unable to ensure their security. Opposition groups have resorted to terror, including the killing of civilians, blaming government forces for these crimes.

Mikhail Slinkin explained the ineffectiveness of the Syrian army in the fight against the opposition by the fact that it was preparing not for counter-terrorist operations, but for a traditional war with Israel. In addition, the internal opposition is supported by external forces, providing it with financial, material, informational and foreign policy support.

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In her report titled "Iran-Syria relations in the context of the confrontation between the West and Russia," A. Chokayeva (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) showed that the main goal of Tehran in the Syrian crisis is to ensure that Syria remains an ally of Iran in the "axis of resistance" and a link with Lebanese Hezbollah. Iran and Syria became closer in 1980 on the basis of a common dislike for Hussein's Iraq, and the fear and hatred they feel for the United States and Israel contribute to maintaining the alliance. For Tehran, it is not only the political support of Damascus that is of great importance: Geographically, Syria is a bridge connecting Iran with the Shiite militant organization Hezbollah. Iran provides significant military and financial support to Syria, including sending ground troops of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to Syria, and contributing to the build-up of its chemical weapons arsenal. In addition, over the past 30 years, Iran has been making efforts to develop cultural and religious ties between the Iranian and Syrian peoples.

V. V. Evseev (Institute of CIS Countries) in his report "On the prospects of Russian-Turkish relations" analyzed the consequences of the incident with the Russian Su-24M bomber shot down by the Turkish Air Force on November 24, 2015, for the development of Russian-Turkish relations and for the international situation. After giving the command to destroy the Russian bomber, R. Erdogan tried to create a no-fly zone in the Syrian region bordering Turkey, which would allow Ankara not only to expand its influence on the territory of Syria, but also to provide protection for the gangs controlled by the Turkish side there. As for the EU, according to the speaker, the issue of refugees has become the subject of blackmail on the part of Turkey. Moreover, the migration crisis, which, according to many experts, was artfully provoked by Ankara, has already brought it serious dividends in the form of easing the visa regime for Turkish citizens in the EU, and in the near future more than 3 billion euros as a tranche for setting up camps for Syrian refugees (in reality, their number near the Syrian border does not exceed 700 thousands of people).

According to the speaker, Erdogan seriously miscalculated both in the issue of full support for his provocative actions on the part of NATO, and Moscow's unwillingness to respond to the deterioration of Russian-Turkish relations. Washington seeks to maintain the current format of its participation in the Syrian conflict, making the main bet on the Syrian Kurds, who are considered by Ankara as the main terrorist threat. And for Ankara, the most serious problem remains the prospect of the formation of autonomy for the Syrian Kurds and its own border. If Moscow can prevent this, Ankara will consider the possibility of a compromise in the Syrian direction.

Vladimir Evseev expressed the opinion that another factor that will determine Turkey's policy in the Syrian direction is neo-Ottomanism. It involves expanding Turkey's sphere of influence to neighboring territories through "soft power", i.e. through humanitarian influence, supranational spirit, introducing modern imperial thinking, moderate Islam, Turkish Eurasianism, pan-Turkism and pan-Islamism. Now the Turkish leadership is also considering the possibility of forcefully expanding its influence with the help of radical Islamists. In light of this approach, Syria is part of the former Ottoman Empire. Therefore, it is necessary to establish its own protectorate there, and possibly to annex those areas where Turkomans live.

Among the factors that will keep Russia and Turkey from excessively deteriorating relations, the speaker put Turkey's dependence on Russian natural gas supplies in the first place. Russia provides 60% of Turkey's domestic natural gas needs. At the same time, the Russian Federation is extremely interested in the passage of its vessels through the Straits, which is now regulated under the Montreux Convention. If Turkey does not violate this convention, the situation for the Russian Navy ships will be difficult. The speaker concluded that the deterioration of relations between Moscow and Ankara can only be stopped if Russia and Turkey reach an informal agreement on the Kurdish issue.

Yu. I. Ilina (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) made a report "On the impact of Khomeini's concept of the Islamic State on religious and political processes in the Middle East". She described R. Khomeini's concept of the Islamic Revolution and analyzed the contradictions between Khomeini's concept and Salafism (Wahhabism). Thus, Salafism does not recognize the modern world order, sometimes reaching the point of rejection of the achievements of technological progress. "Khomeinism" uses the achievements of Western thought, including in the field of state-building, codification of legislation, etc. Both recognize

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the principle of electability and turnover of power, but the absolutist form of government in the Arabian monarchies discredits the arguments of the Salafists. In addition, in the largest radical Salafi groups, the entire power was usually in the hands of a charismatic leader (Mullah Omar, Osama Bin Laden, Doku Umarov, etc.), while the "Khomeinists" were able to create one of the few working models of "illiberal" democracy. Salafists, on the contrary, began to widely resort to violence and terror as the main method of propaganda of their religious and political model ("Taliban", "Caucasus Emirate", etc.). This has led many Muslims to turn their backs on Salafism and view it as a dangerous delusion.

According to the speaker, the appearance of the ISIL group in the international arena marked a new milestone in the confrontation between the Khomeinists and Salafists. The dominance of the maximalists under President Ahmadinejad, which was expressed in attempts to establish total control over the population's moods, the use of methods of political terror against the opposition, made it possible to draw certain parallels between the political regime of Iran and ISIL. The next President of Iran is H. Rouhani set out to liberalize the regime. In foreign policy, priority is given to strengthening relations with Muslim countries by strengthening efforts to "bring madhhabs closer together" and building Iran's reputation in the international arena as a constructive and predictable partner.

Rouhani's New Deal is officially recognized by the international community, which has appreciated the important role of Iran's ideology and policy both regionally and globally. Inviting Iranian diplomats to address issues related to the situation in Syria and using the military potential of Iran in the fight against ISIL means contrasting the ideology and policy of Iran with the position of Salafi extremism and the terrorist policy and tactics of ISIL. The result was a certain easing of sanctions against Iran, which indicates the influence of Iran on religious and political processes in the Middle East and around the world.

B. G. Koibayev (North Ossetian State University named after K. Khetagurov) in his report "The impact of the aggravation of the contradiction between the West and Russia on the balance of power in the South Caucasus", analyzing the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus in the last decade, noted that the integration of the South Caucasus states with the Western community and at the same time the ousting of Russia from the Transcaucasian They remain the most important tasks of the United States and its allies. According to the speaker, the plans of the Western presence in the South Caucasus will be supported primarily by the Georgian authorities, who have recently stepped up negotiations with Western countries in search of a reliable "security umbrella". Georgia seeks a strategic partnership with the United States, Russia's geopolitical rival in the Caucasus. The United States is interested in its presence in the Caucasus to use it as a springboard (as well as the territory of Azerbaijan) for solving Middle Eastern problems (the situation in Syria, Iraq, problems with ISIS, etc.).

As for Azerbaijan, its leadership shows dissatisfaction with Moscow's policy. Russia continues to cooperate with Azerbaijan in various fields. However, Azerbaijan is counting on the help of Western countries and especially Turkey. Armenia's political elite is strengthening security relations with Russia. Representatives of the Ministries of Defense of Russia and Armenia have held numerous bilateral meetings in recent months, which led to the signing in Moscow of an agreement on the creation of a joint regional air defense system in the Caucasus region of collective security.

According to the speaker, the analysis of recent changes in the South Caucasus suggests that they were caused by geopolitical factors, primarily related to the desire of the United States and other Western powers to ensure their dominance here, to establish control over the Caspian oil and gas, as well as over their transportation systems to the West. The new geopolitical configuration that is emerging in the Caucasus, in which the US presence in the region is being strengthened, is balanced by the fact that the Russian Federation mainly controls the main routes of energy exports. Objectively, it is interested in developing and deepening cooperation with the states of the South Caucasus, integrating with them, and using the accumulated joint experience of political, economic, scientific and technical ties. Cooperation will serve the interests of preserving peace and stability in the Caucasus and strengthening good-neighborly relations

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between the Caucasian states on the basis of mutual interests and responsibility for the future of the peoples.

Ya. O. Zakhariev (MGI(U)Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation) made a report on "Russia's interests in Myanmar after the 2015 elections". After the victory of the opposition National League for Democracy in the parliamentary elections in 2015, a government focused on both the West and the PRC and Huaqiao (Chinese diaspora) was formed.

Summing up the conference, A. M. Khazanov noted that the reports were distinguished by a high professional level and contained different points of view of experts on the issues discussed. A number of interesting and original ideas were expressed that allow for a deeper understanding of the processes taking place in Asian and African countries in the context of the aggravation of contradictions between the West and Russia.

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